Olympic Medal Predictions

I don't generally follow any discipline but ice dance that closely in off-years (I see who wins competitions, I just don't go out of my way to watch the competitors or anything). That being said, I've basically followed the sport for the last 20+ years so why not speculate wildly? 


Men's 

Gold- Nathan Chen

Silver- Yuzuru Hanyu

Bronze-Shoma Uno

Honestly I went back and forth about Shoma Uno/Vincent Zhou in the third spot. It's totally possible Vincent could do it, but he's the riskier bet. I don't really foresee anyone unseating Chen/Hanyu but it could be an interesting competition between them. Hanyu won it twice, but Chen had a rough go last time, that might make him hungry.

Women's

Gold-Russia

Silver- Russia

Bronze-Russia

Listen, I don't know ok? There's like a thousand Russian women and they're all really good and I'm sure if Russia was allowed to send 10 athletes they'd all take the top 10 spots. I don't particularly have a dog in the fight-I don't generally very many expressive skaters on the women's side, especially among the younger ones. A lot of them come out with the dead-eyed blank stares. Inside Edge referred to Valieva's performances as "beyond uninspiring" and I just can't watch 4 minutes of ice jumping. Give me Kwan at 2004 Nationals, give me Yu-Na Kim at any time ever. Give me a performance! This has also been a nit pick of mine on the men's side...and even pairs honestly. I think pairs have it harder-could you imagine doing throws and lifts and all that and then on top of it still trying to interpret the music? I digress-I do think Russia will run away with it here but there could be some surprises from the Japanese women.

Pairs 

Gold- Sui/Han

Silver- Mishina/Galliamov

Bronze-Tarasova/Morozov

Yea, I also don't know man. I hear these guys are all good and are doing very well and honestly I do like Sui and Han, I think a Chinese games deserves a Chinese champion.

Ice dance

Gold-Papadakis/Cizeron

Silver- Sinitsina/Katsalapov

Bronze-Hubbell/Donohue

I still am bitter P/C didn't win gold in PyongChang. I'm probably alone in that-and in thinking that the Moulin Rouge program from V/M were insanely overrated. That program was crafted on the principle of relationship bating the entire world. I mean, smart PR move, it worked etc. but also it seemed so OTT to me and included what someone on Twitter at the time referred to as "the cunnilingus lift" and no I will not elaborate. I don't think P/C can be denied this time-their programs are so good, especially that RD. One of the only good ones in this worst street dance category. I can go on a separate rant about the ISU choosing such a cringey horrible mess for an Olympic year (they really wrote KRUMP as a dance style that skaters could choose this year!), especially after they chose it 5 years ago. Like there aren't enough dance rhythms or patterns to choose from. Anywho. I find S/K's RD to be basically ugh. It could be worse. The FD is pretty good I can't deny, but I also don't think it fits them well. It seems to be more of a "This is an Olympic year we had to pick this music and skate like this" type of skate. It's safe (and why does he wear a shiny silver button down shirt during it? Is he going clubbing after the FD?). If I had my druthers I'd pop them in the 4th spot and split bronze between C/B and Gilles/Poirier. But alas, I do not think it is to be. 

H/D's RD is just fine for me. I feel like if they'd had the chance to do a tango or something for the RD they could've really shined. I know they're excited about their Rhythm Nation routine but it's just not my jam. Their FD for me is also not great because of the song choice. This one I have to chalk up to coaching, because it's not dissimilar to VM's FD from 2017 Worlds. Just pick a song with lyrics and look kinda sad-that's the vibe. And it's such a bummer because I remember back to some of their earliest programs at Nationals when they were really rough around the edges and I enjoyed some of those performances a lot more than what they're skating to now (like the Farrucas routine).

Chock/Bates on the other hand have really grown on me with both their programs. I liked that their RD wasn't trying to be hip-hoppy. Good song choice too, even though I was really skeptical about Billie Eilish at first. The only issue I kind of have is that her gloves have nails on them. Looks super weird. Their FD is cool as hell though and someone on Twitter mentioned that this will likely be the most controversial program in Beijing. I mean, I hope so! I think it was really smart of them to choose something so out of the box, but considering how great their snake charmer routine was, I think it was completely logical. Also I just generally feel for these guys, they came out after 2014 and seemed to be on their way to a world title and then watched other teams pass them by. And they had such a rough go last Olympics, not just with a fall but then with Madison's injury. They came back with the snake charmer routine and beat H/D at Nationals and seemed once again to be on their way back to the World podium only to see those championships get cancelled due to the plague. And when they finally did get to perform that routine at Worlds, they were off the podium in 4th. I just want them to go out with a win ok!? I can't believe I wrote a whole paragraph about them but I just have a lot of feelings.

Team

Gold-Russia

Silver- USA

Bronze- Japan

Bit of a bummer that Canada dropped off so much since last Olympics. It's possible they could make a play for bronze. Japan is strong in singles, but doesn't have competitive teams in dance or pairs (their best pair was 10th at Worlds last year and their best dance team was 19th, though I do expect their ice dance finish to be a lot stronger at the Olympics). Meanwhile Canada has a strong ice dance team, but is maybe middle of the pack in the other 3 disciplines, though their best pairs team finished 6th, as a country their finish was 3rd best among pairs. Keegan Messing is their best bet on the men's side, and again, taking into account that multiple athletes from the same country can't compete in the team event, he would be 4th best. They'll have to count on their lone ladies competitor to step up and I don't know much about Madeline Schizas, but as a relatively new skater to the senior ranks she'll have a lot on her shoulders. 

As for gold/silver, I can't see anyone unseating Russia. Their weakest event is men's singles where their best finish (Kolyada) last year at Worlds was 5th-3rd if you don't account for multiple athletes from the same country. Silver should go to the US. Ladies and pairs is weak, but Chen was 4th last year at worlds (2nd by country), and Bell is having a banner year for herself. Pairs could be interesting, since the US' best pairs team currently is plague-positive, but again I just don't see any other team in the top 2 spots. 


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